Finance Brief: Oil up, gold down, and a week that could move both again
Finance Brief: Oil up, gold down, and a week that could move both again
October ended with markets split in two. Oil jumped on war fears while gold fell hard, and the week ahead brings votes and jobs data that could push both further.
Friday, October 30, closed the month with a clear split. The December Brent contract expired at 117.64 dollars a barrel, up 2.4 percent on the day, and the January contract that now leads the market closed at 113.43 dollars. American WTI crude closed at 104.12 dollars, up 2.1 percent. For October as a whole, Brent rose 13.6 percent and WTI 15.2 percent, the fourth monthly gain in a row, as a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of wider war kept a risk premium in every barrel.
Gold went the other way. December gold futures closed at 3,898.90 dollars an ounce, down 3.3 percent on the day and below 4,000 dollars for the first time in a year, as traders weighed war-driven inflation against the prospect of tighter policy. Silver fell further, to around 49 dollars an ounce.
The week ahead is packed. The United States holds midterm elections on November 3, the Bank of England decides rates on November 5, and American payrolls land on November 6. Any of the three can move the dollar, and the dollar moves both oil and gold.
Levels to watch: for Brent, support near 111 and 108 dollars, resistance near 114.30 and 118 dollars. For gold, the near-term range in play is roughly 3,780 to 4,000 dollars. The read is simple: if Gulf tensions ease, the oil premium fades first. If they rise, oil climbs and gold's safe-haven pull fights against rate expectations. What would invalidate the read is a diplomatic breakthrough that takes the Strait of Hormuz threat off the table, which would pull oil back faster than gold.
Information only, not financial advice.
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