Finance Brief: Oil whipsaws on Hormuz strikes while Turkish factories keep shrinking
Finance Brief: Oil whipsaws on Hormuz strikes while Turkish factories keep shrinking
Oil prices swung hard in both directions in two days, and the trigger was the same place both times: the Strait of Hormuz. For anyone watching Turkish factories or their own fuel and heating bills, the message is that geopolitics is now a weekly input cost, not a background risk.
Brent crude settled Monday at 104.77 dollars a barrel, down 7.63 percent on the day, as hopes grew that US-Iran talks could end their eight-month conflict. By early Asian trade on Tuesday, Brent was back up to 105.25 dollars, up 0.5 percent, after reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island. Gold told the other half of the story: spot gold rose 0.3 percent to 3,960.80 dollars an ounce in early Asian trade on Tuesday, extending a rebound of more than 2 percent on Monday from a one-year low hit on Friday.
Türkiye's factories, meanwhile, are still shrinking on their own terms. The Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 47.3 in October from 47.9 in September, the fastest deterioration since June and the 31st straight month below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. New orders fell for a 40th consecutive month, output was cut for a fifth straight month, and 29 percent of firms blamed higher input prices on oil, raw materials and a weaker exchange rate.
Levels to watch: Brent holding above 100 dollars keeps fuel-cost pressure on Turkish manufacturers and households, while a slide back toward Monday's close would signal the market believes talks are real. Gold holding above 3,900 dollars after Friday's plunge suggests the selloff found a floor, but a fresh Hormuz escalation would test it again. What would invalidate this read is a confirmed US-Iran deal framework, which would unwind the war premium in oil fast and give Turkish factories their first cost relief in months.
Information only, not financial advice.
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