Finance Brief: Türkiye's export record, a softer som, and an election-day market
Finance Brief: Türkiye's export record, a softer som, and an election-day market
Türkiye just posted its best October for exports, and Uzbekistan's currency keeps getting stronger against the dollar. For savers and traders across the Turkic world, the question is whether strong trade can hold up while American voters decide who controls Congress.
Türkiye's goods exports reached 25.9 billion dollars in October, up 8.1 percent on the year, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said, a record for the month. Annualised goods exports hit 285.6 billion dollars, above the 282 billion target, and goods plus services reached 413 billion dollars. The BIST 100 stood at 10,961.67 in Report.az's November 3 indicators, with the lira at 49.9765 to the dollar, close to the psychologically important 50 level.
Uzbekistan's som tells a calmer story. The Central Bank set the dollar at 11,911.71 soums for November 4, down 29.94 soums, the third straight daily fall. Gold stood at 3,934.50 dollars an ounce and Brent crude at 105.18 dollars a barrel in the same November 3 indicators, after a volatile week in which oil fell sharply on diplomacy hopes and then bounced back. The war premium has not gone away, it has only been repriced.
The levels to watch are plain. For the lira, 50 to the dollar is the line markets will test first. For the BIST 100, 11,000 is the resistance the index keeps approaching without clearing. For oil, the question is whether Abu Dhabi diplomacy next week lowers the premium further or a failed round sends it back up. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen's figure, 127 billion euros in extra fossil fuel import costs for Europe since the Hormuz closure with no extra volume, is a reminder of what a failed round costs importers.
The scenarios split cleanly. A calm US midterm result plus progress in Abu Dhabi favours risk assets, a softer dollar and lower oil, which helps Türkiye's import bill and Uzbekistan's disinflation. A contested result or a stalled round does the opposite, lifting oil, pressuring the lira and keeping gold bid. Neither outcome changes the export story overnight, but both change the price at which it is financed.
Information only, not financial advice.
#Turkiye #Finance #XSubscribers
FOR X SUBSCRIBERS ONLY