ANALYSIS: Uzbekistan's money week shows a state selling its crown jewels while inflation runs hot
ANALYSIS: Uzbekistan's money week shows a state selling its crown jewels while inflation runs hot
Uzbekistan's central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7 percent this week and in the same breath signalled room to ease rates by about 2 percentage points. Kazakhstan's National Bank did the same for 2027, lifting its forecast to 6.5 to 8.5 percent. Two central banks, one message: prices are running hotter than planned, and the region's policymakers are trying to sound calm about it.
Look past the forecasts and Tashkent is monetising everything it owns. Remittances hit 15.2 billion dollars in nine months. The central bank bought 7 tonnes of gold in September. Uranium output is to double to 15,000 tonnes by 2030. And five state giants, Uzbekistan Airways, Uzbektelecom, Uzbekhydroenergo, the national grid and a state bank, are lined up for stock market listings in 2027 and 2028. Add the EU trade talks under GSP+ and the new flight links with Kazakhstan, and the picture is a state converting assets, geography and goodwill into cash and market plumbing.
The tension is between the two halves of that picture. The asset sales and the easing signal assume a stable economy that can absorb new listings and cheaper money. The inflation forecast says the economy is running hot, driven by energy prices. If the central bank eases too early, it feeds the inflation it just warned about; if it holds, the IPO window and the growth story lose momentum.
What to watch: the central bank's next decision on December 16, which will show whether the easing talk was real; the timetable and pricing of the five IPOs, the first real test of whether foreign investors buy the Uzbek state story; whether remittance growth holds if Russia's economy keeps slowing; and gold and uranium prices, which decide how much Tashkent's reserves are really worth.
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