Finance Brief: Uzbekistan's money week, and oil's 95 dollar reset
Finance Brief: Uzbekistan's money week, and oil's 95 dollar reset
Uzbekistan had the busiest money week in Central Asia, and it matters because the region's biggest reform story is now being priced in real assets. At the same time, oil has fallen to about 95 dollars a barrel, which changes the maths for every energy exporter from Baku to Astana.
Tashkent's central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7 percent, from 6.5 percent, blaming energy prices, yet signalled room to ease rates by about 2 percentage points. Kazakhstan's National Bank raised its 2027 forecast to 6.5 to 8.5 percent. Two central banks lifting forecasts in one week is the region's clearest signal that price pressure is not done.
The Uzbek numbers behind the headlines are strong. Remittances reached 15.2 billion dollars in the first nine months, up 9 percent on last year. The central bank bought 7 tonnes of gold in September. Uranium output is set to double to 15,000 tonnes by 2030, with proven reserves rising to 200,000 tonnes. And five state companies, including Uzbekistan Airways and Uzbektelecom, are lined up for listings in 2027 and 2028.
The global picture at the time of writing: Brent crude near 95 dollars after an 8 to 9 percent slide, gold near 4,130 dollars an ounce, up about 1.5 percent, the BIST 100 near 11,450, roughly flat, and the lira near 50 to the dollar. Oil's slide is the week's big swing: it eases fuel costs for importers like Türkiye and Uzbekistan, but it trims the revenue of exporters, including Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Levels to watch: the Uzbek central bank's December 16 decision, which tests whether the easing talk is real; the IPO timetable for the five state firms; Brent around the 90 to 95 dollar zone, where a break lower would deepen the slide; and gold near 4,100 dollars, where buyers have stepped in before.
Information only, not financial advice.
#Uzbekistan #Finance #XSubscribers
FOR X SUBSCRIBERS ONLY