ANALYSIS: Uzbekistan is selling the future, one mineral at a time
ANALYSIS: Uzbekistan is selling the future, one mineral at a time
Uzbekistan's announcements this week read like a prospectus. Critical minerals production to $2.7 billion by 2030. Uranium output doubling to 15,000 tonnes. Five state companies, including Uzbekistan Airways, heading for the stock market in 2027-28. And more than 153 billion sums in tax from Apple, Google and Meta alone.
Taken together, they describe a state monetising everything it owns: its subsoil, its state companies, and its digital economy. The logic is straightforward. Uzbekistan needs revenue to fund its reform programme, and it would rather sell assets and tax foreign platforms than borrow or squeeze households further.
The strategy has real strengths. Critical minerals are the commodity of the decade, and Uzbekistan holds deposits the world wants. The IPO programme, if it happens, would deepen a shallow capital market and give ordinary Uzbeks a stake in the national champions. And the tech tax haul shows the state can collect from companies that once operated beyond its reach.
But there are risks the headlines skip. Commodity prices swing, and a minerals bet is still a commodity bet. IPOs only work if investors trust the numbers, and Uzbekistan's state companies have a history of opaque books. And selling the crown jewels only works once.
What to watch: the IPO timetable and whether Uzbekistan Airways actually lists in 2027, the 11 new mineral products the state metals complex promises, and whether the money raised shows up in the budget or disappears into the machinery. The test is not the announcement, it is the audit.
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