ANALYSIS: Ankara and Baku: a rift, a dismissal, and a November 8 repair job
ANALYSIS: Ankara and Baku: a rift, a dismissal, and a November 8 repair job
The closest alliance in the Turkic world spent the last month arguing in public. President Ilham Aliyev skipped the Organization of Turkic States summit in Ankara on October 30, despite a personal invitation from President Erdogan, and sent his foreign minister instead. Erdogan now says he will be in Baku on November 8 for Victory Day, and that ties 'can overcome all obstacles.' The visit is the repair job; the rift is the story.
It started in schools. On September 21, Azerbaijan introduced uniform rules that restrict Islamic headscarves in classrooms. Criticism from figures close to Erdogan's ruling party followed, and Baku answered with warnings against interference in its affairs. Underneath sits a deeper dispute: Baku's insistence on an independent foreign policy, including close security ties with Israel, a major arms supplier, and its backing of the UAE's candidate for UN secretary-general over Türkiye's own candidate.
Both sides have paid a price. Erdogan dismissed an adviser over his criticism of Baku's rules. Azerbaijan barred 31 Turkish nationals, including journalists and commentators, from entering the country. Aliyev's aides framed his summit absence as reciprocity: Erdogan had skipped a security summit in Baku on October 15, sending his foreign minister instead.
Neither side can afford a break. Gas pipelines, defence ties and the Middle Corridor bind them, and the 'one nation, two states' bond is the foundation of the Turkic world's politics. The November 8 meeting will be judged on optics first: a warm public appearance ends the public row, even if the underlying questions about sovereignty and respect are settled more slowly.
What to watch: the tone and the photographs from Baku on November 8; whether the headscarf dispute quiets in Turkish commentary; and how Türkiye runs its year chairing the Organization of Turkic States, with Baku watching for signs of respect or of overreach.
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